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Can not stop the environmental protection limited production storm: Panoramic interpretation of the impact of steel and other industries
Release time：2018/7/19 11:24:47
In the next four years, the capacity will be substantially reduced. According to the cement industry capacity action plan (2017-2020 years), by 2020, the production capacity of the cement milling station is 392 million 700 thousand tons (nearly 20% of the current clinker total capacity), 530 (about 25% of the total) of the cement milling station enterprises (about 25% of the total) have made the average utilization of the capacity of clinker cement reached 80% 70%, respectively. A reasonable level of goal. This means that the average annual clinker production capacity will be reduced by 1 million tons in the next 4 years, the output from the staggering peak production will be reduced. Even if the overall demand is flat, the utilization rate the production marketing rate will rise sharply.
The output of electrolytic aluminum maintained a steady growth during the 10 years -14, while the 15 year growth rate soared to 28.8%. The high base effect made the 16 year growth rate drop to 1.5%. In terms of capacity, production capacity total capacity have basically maintained a slow growth trend over the past 14 years. From the end of 15 years, the capacity utilization rate the start rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry have declined obviously. From the end of 15 to the 16 years, the production efficiency the start rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry have been obviously increased because of the introduction of environmental policy factors.
The production of 1 tons of electrolytic aluminum requires 2 tons of alumina 0.5 tons of pre baked anode. The output of electrolytic aluminum in 16 years is 32 million 520 thousand tons, the production of alumina is 60 million 680 thousand tons, which is less than 2 times of the production of electrolytic aluminum. From the effect of environmental protection, the reduction of alumina is also 2 times as much as that of electrolytic aluminum. This means that the gap between supply demand in the current electrolytic aluminum production process will continue to expand, the relative shortage of alumina supply will continue.
The supply demand of thermal power have basically been balanced, the growth of thermal power generation has not been nearly three years. The capacity of thermal power industry has been steadily improved since 08 years. The capacity of power generation equipment in power plants of 6000 kilowatts above has increased from about 600 million kW in 08 years to about 1 billion 50 million kilowatts in 16 years. In terms of capacity utilization, the utilization of thermal power industry in 16 years is located at a low point, the average utilization time of thermal power generating equipment is about 95% in 15 years. In the new capacity, there has been a significant decline in the past 16 years, the new capacity of thermal power generation is only about 75.6% of that in 15 years. In this round of air pollution inspection, thermal power is not in the peak production restriction, but the pollution control system is also applied to the thermal power industry.
From a macro point of view, the 16 year industrial product "volume price rise" corresponds to the economic recovery,if the future industrial products step into the "shrinking price" stage, the corresponding economic environment is stagflation, that is, the economy has not increased, but the price has increased significantly. In the stagflation stage, on the one hand, the price of raw materials is rising, while the interest rate of the loan tends to rise, the upstream banking industries have benefited obviously. However, because of the decline in demand, the industry is difficult to pass on the cost of the middle lower reaches, it will be significantly damaged. Therefore, the overall profit of the enterprise is difficult to continue to expand.
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